Tue, 08 Jan 2008 09:51 EST
Today we are going to look at the Summary of Conclusions about Fireballs and Meteorites
that Victor Clube attached to his cover letter to the Chief, Physics
and BMD Coordinator of the European Office of Aerospace Research and
Development back in 1996, 5 years before September 11, 2001; that, and
a few other things.
I often get accused of "fear mongering" because I keep bringing this
subject up again and again. I even think that it is fascinating that
the big breakthrough in my experiment in Superluminal Communication
came on the day that the fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy began
striking Jupiter - even at the very moment of the first impact - and
that this communication with "myself in the future" has focused so much
attention on the subject of swarms of comets and comet fragments that
repeatedly barrel through the solar system, wreaking havoc and bringing
death and destruction to earth. As a result of the research prompted by
this communication, I wrote an entire 800 page book that is woven
around the issue of cometary explosion type catastrophes that obviously
have occurred repeatedly throughout history: The Secret History of The World.
In the early days of publishing the results of this experiment, I
was nonplussed by the many attacks I came under from all quarters. I
was accused of "channeling aliens" (not true); of wanting to "start a
cult" (what is cultic about doing research into scientific subjects and
exposing religion for the fraud it is?) and so on. That sort of thing
really hurt and puzzled me at first, but I have now seen it for the
blessing it was: it has helped me to learn about the kinds of people
who are in charge of our world, the kind of people who want to keep
secrets so that they can hang onto power: the kind of people who create
such things as "The War on Terror" to conceal from the masses of
humanity the future that may very well bring our civilization to an
end; the kind of people who know that survival of cometary bombardment
is possible and who want to be the only ones who do survive, and to
hell with everyone else.
Mike Baillie, in his book about the Black Death, writes:
It is increasingly evident that intellectually the world is divided
into two. There are those who study the past, in the fields of history
and archaeology, and see no evidence for any human populations ever
having been affected by impacts from space. In diametric opposition to
this stance there are those who study the objects that come close to,
and sometimes collide with, this planet. Some serious members of this
latter group have no doubt whatsoever that there must have been
numerous devastating impacts in the last five millennia; the period of
human civilization. In a paper published in 2005, David Asher and
colleagues have looked at the objects that are known to have come close
to the earth in recent times. They conclude, based on various strands
of evidence (for example, the number of meteorites discovered on earth
that originated on the moon) that the average time between impacts on
earth is no more than 300 years, probably less. [Earth in the Cosmic Shooting Gallery]
Checking the authors Baillie is referring to, we find Bill Napier
listed. Napier is a colleague of Victor Clube. This brings us to
another division. There is a debate going on about this issue as was
mentioned by Clube in the first parts of the letter in question that I
quoted yesterday. He wrote:
It is emphasised here that the present report expresses a viewpoint which is contrary to the
mainstream scientific theme currently reinforced through various US
agencies in the wake of recent major findings under US leadership (eg
those of Luis Alvarez, Eugene Shoemaker, David Morrison etc. Despite
the importance of this mainstream theme, it is recognized here that the
cometary signatures in the terrestrial record are generally stronger
than the asteroidal signatures in the case of both long term and short
term effects ie those affecting biological and geological evolution on
the one hand and mankind and civilization on the other. The raison d'etre
behind this situation is a cometary input dominated in the long term by
objects > 100 kilometres in size which substantially break up in the
short term into objects < 1 kilometre in size, the "window" of
significance so far as the average interval between random impacts by
comets and asteroids in the intervening size range are concerned being
approximately 1- 10 million years. To concentrate, for planetary
defence purposes, on catastrophes which occur only within this
particularly narrow range of frequencies is patently absurd.
Clube's reference to the "mainstream scientific" ideas about comets
and asteroids and so on is only the tip of the iceberg in reference to
The debate is about asteroids vs. comets. Asteroids are solid bodies
of rock and there are about 1000 of them with diameters of 1 km or more
that cross the orbit of the earth. They are called "Apollo" or "earth
crossing" asteroids. The "American School" of astronomers believe that
these objects are the main threat to earth and humanity and they are
concerned with finding them, tracking them, and working out their
orbits. This school believes that if all these asteroids can be mapped,
and any "bad ones" dealt with, Earth will be safe for the foreseeable
future. Their estimates are that we only get hit with one of these
babies about every 100,000 years or so.
At this point in time, the American school of astronomers has
already found and tracked about 700 of the estimated 1000 such
asteroids and, so far, none of them are likely to hit the earth anytime
soon. By the end of 2008, they expect to have located 90% of these
Of course, they aren't talking about objects smaller than 1 km
because they are believed to pose much less risk even if they do smack
into the earth.
So it is that the "American School" believes that they can, over
time and with superior American technology, survey everything around us
and keep our space in space "under control."
What they are saying, as Baillie astutely points out is this: There
are objects that cross the path of the earth but they hardly ever hit
us (only about every 100,000 years), but they are going to make us safe
by finding any and all of them and devising methods to take out the
ones that MIGHT pose a threat at any point in the future. They assume,
of course, that if they figure out that any of them might be a threat
by mapping their orbits, they will have time to do this.
In "Asteroid Astronomer World" there have not been any serious
impacts in the last few thousand years, for sure, and they are going to
see to it that it stays that way!
How typically American! Don't you worry, little Lady, John Wayne and
his gang will circle the wagons and shoot up those redskins/outlaws!
It's obvious that Victor Clube is not a member of the American School.
The "Comet Hazard" school is British based and they think very differently from the American "mainstream" asteroid school.
Comets are said to be different from asteroids because they are made
up of water ice, frozen gas, organic materials, and odd bits of rock
and metal. The standard theory (which may need revision according to
those who advocate the electric universe theory) says that comets are
heated as they pass through the solar system and this causes
outgassing. It is then that we see them as bright objects with long
After a few circuits through the solar system, some comets "outgas"
completely and all that is left is a "very black lump" of any size,
typically at least a few kilometers in diameter. The reason a worn out
comet is so black is possibly due to the poly-aromatic-hydrocarbons
that are concentrated onto the comet's surface like a coating of tar.
Such objects, unlike asteroids, are very difficult to spot because they
do not reflect light.
Comets also leave trails of dust and debris in the inner solar
system and the Earth passes through such periodically. When this
happens, there are generally meteor showers which are really particles
of comets burning up in the atmosphere.
Comets can also break up in to smaller - but still sizable - chunks.
Now, imagine that in a trail of comet dust, there are also some
fairly large chunks of black, un-seeable, comet fragments. If you can't
see them, you can't do anything about them. And when they do "hit,"
they tend to burn up and/or explode violently in the atmosphere (eg
Tunguska event), so they don't leave long-lasting traces such as
craters for archaeologists to find and say "Yes, the fall of this
civilization was due to an assault from outer space." No, there is only
fire, death and destruction; sometimes total.
What all this means is that the comet problem does not submit itself to an efficient solution.
The Comet Hazard school scientists propose that the Tunguska event was due to a fragment of Comet Encke.
These scientists also now have the FACT of the fragments of Comet
Shoemaker-Levy hitting Jupiter in July of 1994 to illustrate the
problem we face. The Comet Hazard scientists also think, as mentioned
above, that impacts are a lot more frequent than many people suppose.
So, to sum it up: there are two very different schools that study
hazards from space. The Asteroid school says that there have been very
few impacts and the problem is solvable, and the Comet school says
there is evidence that there have been numerous impacts by comet debris
that have had profound effects on human civilizations, and will again,
probably very soon.
Okay, now let's take a look at Victor Clube's summary of the problem. He writes:
Asteroid strikes, though important, are not the most serious short-term risk to mankind or civilization
Every 5-10 generations or so, for about a generation, mankind is
subject to an increased risk of global insult through another kind of
This cosmic agency is a "Shoemaker-Levy type" train of cometary
debris resulting in sequences of terrestrial encounters with sub-km
While the resulting risk is ~ 10%, the global insults take the form
of (a) multiple multi-megaton bombardment, (b) climatic deterioration
through stratospheric dust-loading, not excluding ice-age, and (c)
consequent uncontrolled disease/plague.
The sequence of events affecting involved generations is potentially
debilitating because, whether or not the risk is realised, civilization
commonly undergoes violent transitions eg revolution, migration and
Subsequently perceived as pointless, such transitions are commonly
an embarrassment to national elites even to the extent that historical
and astronomical evidence of the risk are abominated and suppressed.
Upon revival of the risk, however, such "enlightenment" becomes an
inducement to violent transition since historical and astronomical
evidence are then in demand.
Such change and change about in addition to the insult is evidently
self-defeating and calls for a procedure to eliminate the risk.
Our technological ability to counter (a) multiple multi-megaton
bombardment and (b) stratospheric dust-loading should therefore be
The very short lead-time commonly associated with the detection of
sum-km meteoroids approaching the Earth implies countering procedures
which differ from those associated with catalogued km-plus asteroids
So, the question is: if there is even a 10 % chance that we are
facing a Shoemaker-Levy type event, why isn't anybody doing anything
Well... maybe they are. Maybe all this War on Terror business and
getting control of resources is, at its root, the psychopath's way of
handling a threat to their survival. Maybe it isn't the "Twilight of the Psychopaths" as Kevin Barrett might like to think... but the Twilight of Humanity; if we don't wake up.
Comment: Continue to Part Four: Wars, Pestilence and Witches